The Modern Learner and the Future of Higher Education: Five Key Predictions for 2025
gregpillar
on
January 1, 2025
With 2025 upon us, discussions about the future of higher education have reached a crescendo. Thought leaders, educators, and analysts have all offered their predictions about what the coming year holds for the sector. Among them, Derek Newton’s Five Education Predictions for 2025 stands out for its thoughtful exploration of key trends and challenges. Published recently in Forbes, Newton’s predictions provide a compelling framework to consider where higher education might be headed.
Rather than simply offering my own predictions, I’ve chosen to respond to Newton’s. While there is much in his analysis that I agree with, I also hold some different perspectives and see opportunities to adjust and expand upon his predictions. My approach is shaped by years of experience navigating the complexities of higher education, from academic operations to enrollment challenges, and from curriculum innovation to the integration of technology. These insights provide a lens through which I assess Newton’s predictions and offer my own nuanced take.
In the sections below, I dive into each of Newton’s five predictions, analyzing their implications and exploring where I align with or diverge from his views. Each response includes a revised prediction that incorporates my perspective, aiming to enrich the conversation about the future of higher education in 2025 and beyond.
Prediction 1: The College Closure Apocalypse Will Not Arrive — Again
Newton’s Prediction
Newton argues that widespread college closures are unlikely in 2025. While a number of schools may close due to financial struggles or mismanagement, there is little evidence (at the moment) to suggest a systemic wave of closures is looming. Closures will likely involve smaller institutions—often religiously affiliated or niche-focused—that fail to address financial or operational mismanagement. Although 2024 saw a number of closures, as tracked by IPEDS, Higher Ed Dive, Inside HigherEd and others, the reality is that a substantial number of closures have occurred since 2016, with an uptick since 2020.
My Take & Revised Prediction: Institutional Crises Will Escalate, Even Without an Apocalypse.
I agree that the “college closure apocalypse” will not occur in 2025. However, Newton’s prediction understates the crises many individual institutions are facing. As Gary Stocker of College Viability has noted, there is a critical difference between the macro and micro views of higher education. While the macro-level data may show relative stability, at the micro level, many institutions are struggling with unsustainable financial models, outdated curricula and programs, demographic pressures, and operational inefficiencies. These challenges are compounded by shifting student expectations, declining public trust, and viable alternatives to pursuing a college education, all leading to valid questions surrounding the ROI of higher education.
As Jeff Selingo noted in a LinkedIn post and his newsletter NEXT, referring to recent data trends including data released by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, year-over-year enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen fell by 5% overall. Some interesting trends in the data show that the biggest enrollment declines were in “middle-market” colleges (schools whose acceptance rates put them in the competitive and very competitive markets), white students, and highly affluent students—heading off to college after high school is no longer the gold standard.
Enrollment trends are often used as a key predictor for institutional closures, but it’s important to recognize that turning around enrollment alone isn’t enough to save troubled schools. Enrollment declines, while impactful on the bottom line, are rarely the sole reason a school closes. Instead, how institutions respond to enrollment challenges, especially early on, plays a far greater role in determining their fate. Schools that act early, make bold changes to their operations and intentionally redesign their program portfolios to address modern challenges are far better positioned to weather crises. Ignoring these challenges or implementing surface-level changes without a clear, strategic focus will likely exacerbate their instability.
It’s not just about avoiding closure—it’s about long-term sustainability. While we may not see mass closures in 2025, the number of schools operating in various stages of crisis is likely to increase. With a new administration poised to introduce changes to federal policies and increased scrutiny on higher education’s value, institutions will need to adopt adaptive strategies, bold leadership, and calculated risk-taking to remain viable.
As I’ve noted in some of my posts this year, schools such as Unity Environmental, San Francisco Bay University, Fairleigh Dickinson University, and Lindenwood University are great examples of small to mid-size institutions that, through bold leadership, understanding the evolving landscape of higher education and the modern learner, and making calculated risks, have seen growth and success in an era where challenges, declines, and failures (without learning from them) are more common. Expect to see a fair amount of program closures and even new program announcements dominating social media, news outlets, and university websites over institution closures. Many of those will be in vain if they don’t come with changes in operations, including student support services, curriculum development, and pedagogical improvements. Institutions can no longer avoid the exercise of frequently revisiting how they understand and support the modern learner. It is also worth noting that the examples I’ve highlighted—Unity Environmental, San Francisco Bay University, Fairleigh Dickinson University, and Lindenwood University—do not include institutions like Arizona State, Southern New Hampshire, and Western Governors University. These very large institutions, with student populations exceeding 100,000, are in a class by themselves, leveraging scale and innovative practices to thrive in a way that smaller institutions cannot replicate.
Prediction 2: Higher Education Won’t Face a Major Enrollment Squeeze
Newton’s Prediction
Newton suggests that enrollment challenges will be less severe than anticipated. Improved retention rates, modest demographic declines, and a rebound in community college enrollments will mitigate significant enrollment drops across higher education.
My Take
Revised Prediction: The Enrollment Squeeze Will Deepen Without Bold Innovation and Focus on the Modern Learner.
Newton’s prediction connects closely with themes discussed in the first prediction, as enrollment changes are critical to understanding institutional stability. While retention improvements are encouraging, they will not counterbalance the challenges higher education faces. The demographic cliff—a decline in high school graduates—combined with eroding trust in higher education and skepticism about its value, will exacerbate enrollment pressures. For smaller private schools, increasing enrollment solely from the traditional population is becoming increasingly difficult. Nathan Grawe’s book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education highlighted the demographic cliff, but it did not fully address the growing trend of students opting out of pursuing a four-year degree immediately after high school.
Once a student delays college, their return—if it happens at all—often comes with additional challenges such as full-time jobs, family responsibilities, or other commitments. These students are less likely to live on campus or attend daytime classes exclusively. Even those who do may still juggle full-time employment alongside their studies. This reality underscores the need for institutions to craft student services and program structures that better align with the needs of the modern learner.
If administrators and institutions focus on one thing in 2025, it should be adopting (or refining) a modern learner-centered approach. The modern learner, as defined by Education Dynamics, is a student whose buying behaviors and expectations have evolved significantly. Modern learners often juggle multiple responsibilities, including work, family, and school, while navigating financial pressures such as bills and debt. They demand rapid service, affordability, and accessibility from their institutions. Unlike traditional students, modern learners prioritize flexibility in course offerings, alternative term structures, and support services that accommodate their complex lives. As Joe Sallustio’s article, Engaging the Modern Learner in Higher Education: Strategies for Educators, argues, transitioning from a traditional student-centered paradigm to one that prioritizes the modern learner benefits students of all ages and backgrounds.
Institutions like Unity Environmental provide an excellent example of this transformation. By focusing their decisions on meeting the needs of the modern learner, Unity Environmental has grown its enrollment from 500 to over 5,000. Their success under the leadership of Dr. Melik Khoury is a testament to how bold, intentional changes can drive growth and sustainability. For more on Unity’s innovative approach, see my review here.
Institutions must also reconsider traditional assumptions about program delivery to better serve the modern learner. For example, allowing on-campus students to enroll in online courses can improve accessibility without diminishing the campus experience. Yet, many smaller institutions resist such changes due to concerns about preserving the “campus feel.” While it’s not necessary to shift entirely to online programs, conversations about market demand and program adaptability are essential. Are there programs that make sense to shift to online or provide more online options? Are there strategic partnerships (which could be a whole other article) with other institutions to provide online flexibility while still offering (and having the capacity) to offer face-to-face options?
Moreover, institutions must recognize that more and more college students are grappling with mental health challenges. Addressing these issues requires more than expanding counseling services; it calls for a holistic approach that integrates mental health support into program structures and campus culture. This is particularly critical for modern learners, who often balance demanding schedules and complex life circumstances, amplifying their need for mental health resources.
By embracing a modern learner-focused approach, institutions can make notable improvements that attract and support students of all ages—traditional and nontraditional alike. Tailoring student services and program delivery to meet the diverse needs of modern learners not only enhances accessibility and engagement but also strengthens the overall competitiveness of the institution in an evolving educational landscape.
Without bold innovation and a focus on modern learners, enrollment pressures will deepen. Institutions that continue to double down on in-person, daytime-only courses designed exclusively for traditional students will find it increasingly difficult to remain competitive in an evolving landscape.
Prediction 3: The AI Revolution is On Hold
Newton’s Prediction
Newton predicts that the transformative potential of AI in education will remain largely unrealized in 2025. Limited adoption among educators, concerns about reliability, and skepticism about AI’s practical classroom applications will delay significant breakthroughs.
My Take
Revised Prediction: The AI Revolution is Slow, Not Stalled.
I partially agree with Newton’s perspective but would frame it differently. The AI revolution in education is progressing, albeit at a slower and more deliberate pace than many expected. This is not because the technology lacks potential but because its integration requires careful consideration. For example, AI has already disrupted academic integrity, raising critical questions about how we maintain ethical standards while embracing technological advancements.
AI’s impact goes beyond plagiarism detection or generative tools. From adaptive learning systems to predictive analytics for at-risk students, AI is enhancing personalization, improving operational efficiencies, and reshaping the way institutions support learners. While some thought leaders debate AI’s potential to disrupt education, I firmly believe that AI has the capacity to transform higher education on a scale akin to or even beyond the internet’s impact. It is certainly no Wikipedia—an early disruptor that ultimately found its place—but rather a foundational shift that will continue evolving and integrating into every aspect of education.
For instance, AI-powered tutoring systems can personalize learning by adapting to each student’s pace and style, fostering inclusivity and engagement. These tools provide instant feedback, enabling students to identify and address knowledge gaps in real time. Administratively, predictive analytics can help institutions identify at-risk students earlier, allowing for timely interventions that improve retention and success rates. Virtual simulations, another AI-driven innovation, can immerse students in realistic learning environments, providing hands-on experiences that traditional classrooms cannot replicate.
However, as my recent article on academic integrity explores, generative AI has also created significant challenges. Cases of AI-related academic dishonesty have risen sharply, prompting institutions to rethink assessment methods and ethical guidelines. While some faculty view AI as a threat to traditional education models, others see it as an opportunity to innovate and adapt. Clear policies and faculty training are critical for navigating this landscape, ensuring AI is used ethically and effectively to enhance learning rather than undermine it.
Institutions must also prepare students for an AI-driven workforce by integrating AI literacy into curricula. This includes teaching ethical considerations, addressing biases in AI systems, and providing practical applications that align with industry demands. For example, offering micro-credentials in AI proficiency can equip students with the skills.
Prediction 4: For-Profit Schools Will Rebound
Newton’s Prediction
Newton predicts a resurgence of for-profit schools, fueled by a shift in federal policy under the new administration. Rollbacks of regulations that tied federal funding to job outcomes and increased difficulty in discharging student loans are expected to attract investors back to the for-profit sector.
My Take
Revised Prediction: 2025 Will Be a Pivotal Year for Accreditation and Alternative Models.
Newton’s prediction of a rebound for for-profits connects closely with broader changes likely to emerge under the new administration. However, the real story extends beyond for-profits to how accreditation and regulatory frameworks will evolve under these changing conditions. While relaxed policies may benefit for-profits directly, the ripple effects on accreditation, innovation, and the higher education landscape will be significant.
The emergence of new accrediting bodies like the National Association for Academic Excellence (NAAE) is particularly noteworthy. As discussed in my recent guest co-hosting of an episode of the EdUp Experience – Accreditation Insights podcast with Laurie Shanderson and featuring Anthony Bieda of the NAAE, this organization exemplifies a forward-thinking approach to accreditation. The NAAE seeks to address gaps left by legacy accreditors, emphasizing responsiveness, relevance, and a commitment to maintaining rigorous yet adaptable quality standards. With legacy accreditors grappling with how to support true innovation while upholding high standards, the NAAE’s model represents an important shift in the accreditation landscape.
One of the major challenges for accreditation in 2025 will be how accreditors and institutions navigate major innovations while ensuring that quality standards remain relevant and robust. Traditional accrediting bodies often face criticism for being slow to adapt to institutional needs, particularly regarding innovative approaches such as three-year bachelor’s degrees, credit-for-prior learning, and competency-based education. The NAAE aims to meet this challenge head-on by emphasizing outcomes-based metrics and fostering collaboration rather than simply enforcing compliance. This approach is a departure from traditional models and could serve as a blueprint for modernizing accreditation across the board.
Another critical responsibility of accreditors is ensuring that institutions maintain financial stability and sustainability. However, by the time warnings and other actions are taken, it is often too late to avoid major impacts on students. A better system for monitoring institutional finances is urgently needed—one that identifies vulnerabilities earlier and allows for proactive interventions. This would protect students and uphold the integrity of higher education as a whole.
A continuing story in 2025 will likely be the balance between fostering innovation and maintaining quality. As institutions explore new delivery models and embrace technologies like AI, accreditors must adapt to ensure these developments benefit students while preserving academic rigor. The focus on outcomes—such as graduate employment rates, skill attainment, and student satisfaction—will become increasingly central to the accreditation process. The NAAE and other emerging accreditors are well-positioned to lead this shift, emphasizing measurable results over rigid adherence to outdated frameworks.
Institutions also face mounting pressure to align with accrediting bodies that support their innovative efforts. For example, schools aiming to implement three-year bachelor’s degrees or experiment with nontraditional course structures may seek accreditation partners capable of adapting quickly to these changes. As legacy accreditors reassess their approaches to remain competitive, 2025 could mark a turning point in how accreditation evolves to support innovation while maintaining high-quality standards. Of course, with the new administration, depending on their actions and ability to make the proposed changes and disruptions to the Department of Education and the Higher Education landscape, all of this could go right out the door and change in a heartbeat!
In conclusion, while Newton’s focus on the resurgence of for-profits is valid, the larger transformation lies in how accreditation will evolve to meet the demands of modern higher education. The rise of alternative accreditors like the NAAE signals a shift toward more flexible, outcomes-focused models that prioritize innovation without compromising quality. This evolution will shape the future of higher education, impacting institutions across the spectrum—not just for-profits.
Prediction 5: High School Students Will Be Even Less Prepared for College
Newton’s Prediction
Newton argues that incoming students in 2025 will be less prepared for college, particularly in writing and critical thinking, due to their reliance on AI tools throughout high school.
My Take
Revised Prediction: College Readiness Will Require a Shift in Expectations and Strategies.
I agree to some extent with Newton’s prediction but believe it requires a broader perspective. To say college readiness is in decline is overly simplistic and pessimistic; rather it is evolving. Yes, I will concede that there are some skill gaps evident in today’s high school graduates and modern learners. Institutions of higher education—whether community colleges, technical schools, or four-year institutions—have always faced an evolving landscape of student preparedness after high school. This challenge is nothing new, yet institutions often lag behind in adapting to these changes.
Whether it’s writing skills, reading comprehension, critical thinking, or a knowledge base, I have consistently seen faculty express frustration about perceived deficiencies in students entering college. However, this is a steady drumbeat of critique that has spanned decades. The reality is that preparedness, like learning itself, is dynamic. Students today may lack certain traditional skills, but they also bring unique strengths, such as digital fluency and adaptability, which reflect the demands of a modern world increasingly shaped by technology.
Incorporating a modern learner approach, institutions should look to adjust everything from support services to curriculum and pedagogical practices to better engage students. By fostering curiosity and a lifelong learning mindset, colleges can help students bridge gaps in skills while leveraging their inherent strengths. This requires a paradigm shift away from lamenting perceived deficiencies and toward actively addressing them.
It’s not just about academic skills. Many students enter college lacking emotional, social, or mental readiness for the challenges of post-secondary education. These gaps further emphasize the need for institutions to be prepared to serve learners of all ages—not just those fresh out of high school. While dual-enrollment programs have seen increased participation and may address some knowledge gaps, they often fall short of fully preparing students emotionally or equipping them with essential skills.
A quick search of recent articles in The Chronicle of Higher Education, Inside Higher Ed, Higher Ed Dive, and The Hechinger Report reveals widespread concern over students’ readiness to engage with extensive reading, in-depth research, and long-form writing. These challenges are well-documented, yet institutions must take them as opportunities to rethink how they prepare students for such demands. This does not mean eliminating rigorous assignments but reimagining how to scaffold students’ progress toward mastery of these tasks.
Call me overly optimistic, but I firmly believe in higher education’s ability to provide transformative learning experiences no matter where a student is at in his learning journey. Through thoughtful adaptation and a commitment to meeting students where they are, colleges can not only address gaps in preparedness but also unlock the full potential of all learners—traditional and nontraditional alike. Readiness is no longer a static concept; it’s a dynamic and evolving process. Institutions and faculty have a choice: continue lamenting the lack of preparedness or rise to the challenge and help students succeed in an ever-changing world.
Final Thoughts
Newton’s predictions offer a compelling starting point for reflecting on the challenges and opportunities ahead for higher education. However, the future of the sector hinges on how well we understand and address the evolving needs of the modern learner. This paradigm is not just about accommodating changing student demographics but embracing a mindset of adaptability, inclusivity, and innovation.
As I step into my new role as Assistant Provost for Academic Affairs at Gardner-Webb University, my primary focus will be on adopting and deepening my understanding of the modern learner paradigm. Recognizing that the needs of modern learners are not static but dynamic—and often influenced by the specific institutional and social contexts—I aim to work collaboratively to ensure that we design educational experiences that truly meet students where they are.
The modern learner paradigm requires institutions to rethink traditional assumptions about program design, course delivery, and support services. It’s about creating pathways that resonate with learners of all ages and backgrounds, addressing not just academic gaps but also the emotional, social, and mental challenges many students face today. Whether through innovative use of technology, tailored student services, or reimagined curricula, institutions must foster an environment that supports curiosity, cultivates durable skills, and prepares students for an unpredictable future.
At the same time, addressing broader systemic challenges—such as the integration of AI, the evolution of accreditation, and the financial stability of institutions—is critical to advancing this vision. The thoughtful adoption of AI, for example, has the potential to enhance learning, streamline operations, and support ethical academic practices. Meanwhile, emerging accreditation models like those championed by the National Association for Academic Excellence underscore the importance of adaptability and outcomes-focused approaches that prioritize student success and institutional sustainability.
Ultimately, higher education’s ability to thrive in this transformative era will depend on its commitment to bold, student-centered strategies. This is not a time to lament changes in student readiness or to cling to outdated models of teaching and learning. Instead, it’s an opportunity to lead with vision, empathy, and a steadfast belief in the transformative power of education. By centering on the modern learner and continuously evolving to meet their needs, we can create a more inclusive, dynamic, and resilient higher education landscape that empowers all learners to succeed.