The preliminary Fall 2024 enrollment data released by the National Student Clearinghouse offers crucial insights into the current state of higher education, particularly among private, four-year institutions, which make up over 36% (1,324 out of 3,639) of degree-granting colleges and universities with first-year undergraduates in the United States (National Center for Education Statistics, 2022). These trends align with observations I—and others in the field—have made regarding the shifting landscape and the future of higher education, where demographic changes, financial accessibility, and evolving student priorities play pivotal roles.
In this article, I unpack these preliminary findings, exploring how declines in freshman enrollment, growth in non-traditional age students, rising popularity of certificate programs, and changing racial and economic demographics are reshaping the landscape. Additionally, we consider the broader implications of recent legal shifts affecting diversity in higher education, as well as persistent challenges facing lower-income students, particularly those dependent on Pell Grants. These observations highlight trends that I believe signal significant opportunities and challenges ahead, providing a framework for institutions to strategize around the evolving needs of modern learners and prepare for a more adaptive and inclusive future in higher education. I look forward to taking deeper looks and providing more in-depth analyses of these trends in future articles.
1. The Decline in Freshman Enrollment at 4-Year Private Institutions
Full-time Freshman enrollment at four-year private colleges has seen a notable 6.7% decrease this year, a decline driven by multiple interconnected factors that extend beyond any single cause (Kim, et. al., 2024). This reduction aligns with the long-anticipated demographic cliff, which is already impacting smaller private colleges more significantly due to declining birth rates—particularly in the Midwest and Northeast. Enrollment shifts in public institutions also reflect this trend, with freshman enrollment there dropping by 8.6%, illustrating that these challenges are impacting the broader higher education landscape. Certain regions, like the South, may experience softer declines due to higher population growth, but enrollment trends across private institutions are broadly being tested. It is worth noting the only real areas of increase is at community colleges and specifically part-time public 2-yr (2.2%) and part-time public primary associate degree granting baccalaureate institutions (PAB) (8.0%).
This demographic decline disproportionately affects traditional college-age students, particularly evident in the 5.8% drop in 18-year-old freshmen at four-year institutions, revealing that many high school graduates are increasingly opting out of enrolling directly in a four-year college post-graduation (Kim, et. al., 2024, Figure 4.1a). The Higher Ed Dive analysis highlights that freshman enrollment declines span across racial and ethnic groups, with first-year enrollment declining by 5% overall (Unglesbee, 2024). More notably, declines were particularly steep among White, Black, and Multiracial students—11.4%, 6.1%, and 6.6%, respectively—while Hispanic and Asian students experienced relatively smaller reductions. The demographic shifts highlighted by both the Clearinghouse report and Higher Ed Dive underscore the critical need for institutions to prioritize inclusive outreach and strategic support to maintain racial and ethnic diversity within incoming freshman classes (Kim, et. al., Figure 4.2b, 2024; Unglesbee, 2024).
Adding to these enrollment challenges is the delayed release of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), which has presented barriers for lower-income students who rely heavily on financial aid planning to secure enrollment. This delay, combined with economic pressures, impacts institutions with higher concentrations of Pell Grant recipients particularly harshly, evidenced by a 10% freshman enrollment decline at such private institutions. In contrast, community colleges, often more accessible to lower-income students, reported a slight 1.2% increase in freshman enrollment. This disparity between private institutions and community colleges further supports the need for private colleges to address affordability and retention to stay competitive in a shifting landscape (Kim, et. al., Figure 4.2, 2024; Fink, 2024).
The complexities of these enrollment shifts are visually represented in Figure 4.1b: Freshmen Enrollment Changes by Race/Ethnicity, which shows stark disparities. In 2024, white freshman enrollment at private institutions declined by 11.4%, while Black and Multiracial students saw declines of 6.1% and 6.6%, respectively. Hispanic and Asian students experienced smaller declines of 1.4% and 2.8%. These variances suggest the need for institutions to prioritize inclusive outreach and strategic support to attract a diverse applicant pool, particularly from underrepresented groups who are bearing the brunt of financial and demographic pressures (Unglesbee, 2024).
The increase in dual enrollment among high school students also impacts enrollment decisions, with approximately 2.5 million high school students participating in dual enrollment programs during the 2022–23 academic year, making up roughly 21% of community college enrollments (Fink, 2024). The appeal of dual enrollment lies in its cost-effectiveness, allowing students to earn college credits at reduced costs, if not for free, often leading them to choose community colleges over private four-year institutions (Unglesbee, 2024; Fink, 2024).
Finally, also contributing to these enrollment declines is growing public skepticism around higher education, with concerns over escalating tuition costs and questions about the return on investment (ROI). This skepticism, paired with rising interest in alternative pathways such as apprenticeships, certifications, and direct-to-workforce options, has made traditional college enrollment less attractive for some students. These trends underscore the critical need for private four-year institutions to adapt recruitment and retention strategies to navigate a complex and shifting educational landscape.
2. The Rise in Enrollment of Non-Traditional Age Students
While traditional freshman enrollment is declining, the Clearinghouse report shows a rise in enrollment among non-traditional age students at private four-year institutions, indicating a shifting demographic profile. Specifically, since 2022 enrollment for students aged 21 – 24 increased by 25.2%, aged 25 to 29 rose by 38.7%, and for those aged 30 or older, it increased by 29.1%, in sharp contrast to the declines seen in traditional freshman enrollment (Kim, et. al., 2024, Figure 4.1a). Part-time enrollment for this age group has also risen, highlighting the shift toward students managing multiple responsibilities alongside their studies and delaying the pursuit or completion of a degree (Kim, et. al., 2024; Spitalniak, 2024). This shift supports the trend of increasing demand among modern learners for adaptable, relevant, and skill-based education that fits their complex schedules and immediate workforce needs.
This demographic shift reflects the increasingly prominent “modern learner” concept as described by Sallustio and Colbert (2024). Modern learners prioritize programs offering quick and tangible returns on investment and often seek education that supports career advancement, upskilling, or reskilling. THe previously used “non-traditional” students are driving the rise in certificate and credential programs, as shown by a 4.8% growth in these enrollments this year, highlighting an increasing preference for shorter, career-aligned educational programs that align well with workforce demands (Kim, et. al., 2024). The Higher Ed Dive article corroborates this trend, emphasizing that the overall 3% growth in undergraduate enrollment is largely driven by returning and “non-traditional” students, further reinforcing the shifting focus from traditional four-year degrees to accessible, workforce-relevant credentials (Spitalniak, 2024; Sallustio & Colbert, 2024).
Institutions aiming to serve this demographic must adjust their educational delivery methods to accommodate the needs of students balancing work, family, and school. Research shows that flexible course scheduling, particularly through evening, weekend, and online or hybrid formats, is essential to supporting non-traditional students’ success. Notably, online enrollment pursuing online degrees at primarily online institutions (POI) grew by 13.3%, emphasizing the need for institutions to embrace adaptable learning formats to meet the demands of students with non-traditional schedules (Kim, et. al., 2024, Figure 4.3). Even if an institution’s primary student demographic is the “traditional” 18-22-year-old student, embracing the “modern learner” approach will not only increase the accessibility of your programs for those with families and other time commitments, it will also better serve students in the 18-22-year-old demographic.
Furthermore, as Sallustio and Colbert (2024) argue, effectively supporting modern learners requires not only program flexibility but also recognition of the economic constraints that non-traditional students often face. Expanding scholarship opportunities, developing robust career services, and offering targeted mental health support can reduce the barriers these learners face in pursuing education. Through the integration of support mechanisms such as these, institutions can create an environment that encourages non-traditional learners to enroll and persist in higher education. By building adaptable, mission-driven strategies, private institutions can better position themselves to attract a broad spectrum of learners and meet the evolving needs of an increasingly diverse student population.
3. Growth in Certificate Programs and Stackable Credentials
One of the most striking trends in the 2024 data is the rapid growth in enrollment in certificate programs, reflecting a strong demand for skills-based, career-focused credentials that offer immediate value in the job market. In 2024, undergraduate certificate programs at private four-year colleges, fields such as Liberal Arts and Sciences saw a significant 21.9% increase, while Construction Trades grew by 13.6%, and Mechanic and Repair Technologies saw an increase of 13.0% (Kim et al., 2024, Figure 6.1a). These fields highlight the versatility and appeal of trade professions as well as foundational and interdisciplinary knowledge in meeting workforce needs. Over a 2 year period (2022-2024) Liberal Arts and Sciences saw a striking 64.5% increase, Basic Skills had a significant 46.7% jump, and Multidisciplinary studies increased 29.4%.
Similarly, graduate certificate programs experienced notable growth, particularly in high-demand areas. For example, in 2024 Engineering saw an impressive 19.6% growth in graduate certificate enrollment, followed by Public Administration, which rose by 14.9%, and Liberal Arts and Sciences, which grew by 12.2% (Kim et al., 2024, Figure 6.1b). Between the years 2022 and 2024, similar to the undergraduate certificates, the largest areas of growth were Legal Professions and Studies (59.7%), Public Administration (26.1%), and Multidisciplinary Studies (22.9%)
These values indicate that providing smaller credentials with key skills often found and cultivated in the liberal arts provide significant value and may be an alternative route for how these institutions structure their programs to meet current and future workforce needs while still anchored in the Liberal Arts. Interestingly, fields/areas where enrollment is declining in degree programs are the same fields/areas experiencing an increase in enrollment for certificates. Thus, further showing the value of skills stemming from studies in the Liberal Arts and Sciences as beneficial and highly desired workforce skills.
This trend is particularly significant for the modern learner—often balancing work, family, and educational commitments—who may not have the flexibility or resources to commit to a full degree program. According to recent insights, certificate programs have become particularly appealing due to their shorter time commitment and immediate workforce applicability, allowing students to quickly gain specialized skills in fields like healthcare, business, and technology (Gurchiek, 2024). These programs align well with the needs of non-traditional learners, many of whom prioritize skill acquisition and career advancement over traditional degrees.
Stackable credentials have emerged as a flexible and pragmatic pathway, allowing students to earn meaningful qualifications in stages that can later be applied toward a degree. This pathway is particularly attractive in fields such as information technology, healthcare, and business administration, which lead in undergraduate and graduate certificate enrollments. This alignment with workforce demands reflects a growing focus among learners and institutions on adaptability, specialized skills, and direct career applicability.
By offering stackable credentials, private institutions can attract a wider array of learners—both those beginning their careers and those advancing or pivoting mid-career—while supporting the development of competencies that respond to labor market demands. The trend toward certificates highlights a broader evolution in higher education, where the focus is increasingly on skills acquisition and career progression over traditional, time-intensive degree paths.
Figures 6.1a and 6.1b from the National Student Clearinghouse report effectively illustrate the substantial enrollment growth in certificate programs relative to traditional degrees, emphasizing the appeal of these shorter, skills-oriented credentials. This shift underscores the modern learner’s preference for accessible, practical education pathways that align closely with professional goals.
4. The Impact on Racial Diversity and Demographic Shifts
The Supreme Court’s recent ruling on affirmative action has introduced further challenges to maintaining racial diversity within private institutions, which typically boast a diverse student population. The 2024 National Student Clearinghouse data reveals nuanced shifts in racial and ethnic enrollment patterns, indicating a slight decrease in Black and Hispanic student enrollment in private four-year institutions. This decline aligns with broader trends following the affirmative action ruling, underscoring the need for institutions to rethink their recruitment strategies to sustain diversity (Kim, et. al., 2024, Figure 4.1b).
Adding to these challenges is the recent drop in traditional-age college students, making the recruitment and retention of underrepresented students even more essential for institutions aiming to maintain campus diversity. These demographic and legal shifts emphasize the need for targeted strategies that extend beyond conventional approaches. Data indicates that in the 2022–23 academic year, Black students made up only 8% of enrollments in high school dual enrollment programs—a pathway that often provides a stepping stone into higher education (Fink, 2024).
Notably, the Supreme Court’s decision appears to have had a pronounced effect at several elite institutions, where shifts in enrollment demographics have been observed. For example, Amherst College reported a sharp decline in Black first-year students, dropping from 11% of the freshman class last year to a mere 3% this year, while Hispanic student enrollment fell from 12% to 8% (Svrluga, 2024; Chao-Fong, 2024). At the same time, white students increased from 33% to 38% and Asian American students increased from 18 to 20%. Similarly, Tufts University experienced a reduction in Black students in its freshman class from 7.3% to 4.7%, with a concurrent rise in white enrollment from 46.8% to 49.3% (Chao-Fong, 2024). These figures signal that some schools are encountering immediate, tangible impacts on diversity following the affirmative action ban.
As demographic shifts continue and traditional college-age populations decline, the need for innovative diversity strategies becomes more urgent. Beyond relying on traditional pipelines, schools may consider partnerships with community organizations, outreach to high schools in underrepresented areas, and scholarships aimed specifically at first-generation students. This approach could foster diverse pathways for non-traditional students, particularly those pursuing stackable credentials or certificates, who may increasingly represent campus diversity in the absence of affirmative action policies.
Looking ahead, this enrollment data might signal more long-term challenges in achieving racial and ethnic representation on campuses. The drop in diversity is especially concerning when combined with the ongoing demographic cliff, the rising costs of higher education, the delayed FAFSA rollout, and public concerns about the return on investment in a college degree. The convergence of these factors may disproportionately affect underrepresented students’ access to higher education, suggesting a growing urgency for colleges to adopt race-neutral but inclusion-oriented policies and practices to maintain diverse learning environments in the years to come (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2024).
5. Challenges for Lower-Income Students and Declines in Pell Grant Enrollment
Lower-income students continue to face significant barriers beyond just tuition costs, and the Fall 2024 enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse paints a sobering picture for Pell Grant recipients at four-year private institutions. Unlike previous years when Pell Grant enrollment held relatively steady, 2024 saw a sharp decline in these enrollments, with decreases of 10.7% for high-Pell institutions, 5.1% for medium-Pell, and 6.4% for low-Pell institutions (Kim et al., 2024, Figure 4.2b). These drops highlight how financial uncertainty, compounded by FAFSA processing delays, disproportionately impacts students who rely heavily on aid. The findings suggest that many Pell-eligible students faced additional hurdles in confirming their college plans this year, underscoring how crucial it is for institutions to address financial access challenges more proactively.
One of the driving forces behind these enrollment declines is the delay in processing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). For lower-income students, who often cannot finalize their plans without financial aid, such delays create substantial obstacles. The resulting uncertainty caused some Pell-eligible students to defer or forgo their enrollment, continuing a pattern observed in past years (Kim et al., 2024). When financial aid is delayed or uncertain, students from low-income backgrounds are left with few viable options, particularly at private institutions with higher tuition costs. This situation exacerbates existing challenges for first-time freshmen from lower-income families, making it increasingly difficult for them to access private four-year institutions.
The struggle for these students goes beyond just tuition. Many low-income students also contend with indirect costs, such as housing, transportation, and childcare, which can often be as burdensome as tuition itself. A recent analysis reveals that three-fourths of students from low-income backgrounds are working 20 hours or more per week to afford college (Unglesbee, 2024). This heavy reliance on part-time jobs, while necessary, can negatively impact academic performance and progress, as students balancing extensive work hours often face challenges in maintaining their grades and completing their studies on time. For many, juggling these work commitments can mean choosing between staying in school and meeting basic needs.
Institutions could respond by adopting support models tailored to the unique needs of low-income students. Emergency funds, on-campus employment, and affordable housing options are essential. However, innovative ideas like shorter academic terms, where students can focus on fewer classes at a time, or expanded evening and weekend support services could be particularly impactful. These adjustments would not only benefit lower-income students balancing work and school but would also align well with the broader needs of the “modern learner”—students of all backgrounds seeking more flexible, career-aligned education that fits within their busy lives (Sallustio & Colbert, 2024). By creating environments where students have more control over their schedules and can balance personal obligations with academic responsibilities, institutions can help all students thrive.
Moreover, offering these expanded support mechanisms across various schedules and formats helps institutions appeal to a diverse range of learners, not just Pell Grant recipients. Evening and weekend access to tutoring, advising, and career services, for example, would provide non-traditional and working students with the resources they need to succeed. In this way, private institutions can take meaningful steps to adapt to the modern learner model, ensuring that they serve the evolving needs of today’s students—many of whom are balancing significant responsibilities outside the classroom.
In addition, some colleges are experimenting with alternative financial aid models to support low-income students. Partnerships with local nonprofits or corporate sponsors can fill funding gaps and help cover essential indirect expenses such as transportation, textbooks, and childcare. By expanding financial support beyond tuition, institutions can create a more comprehensive approach to access and retention for Pell-eligible students, ensuring that these students not only enroll but also persist and complete their degrees.
6. Shifting Interests in Major Fields and the Growth of Multidisciplinary Studies
The 2024 data also sheds light on changing preferences across fields of study, marking a shift toward disciplines that offer clear career pathways and skill application. Interest in traditional fields like Social Sciences and English has seen continued declines, with Liberal Arts and Sciences dropping by 5.9% and English by 2.6%. In contrast, career-focused fields such as Engineering, Business, and Health Professions have shown notable increases, aligning with students’ and families’ growing emphasis on programs with direct return on investment (ROI) (Kim, et. al., 2024, Figure 6.1).
This trend is particularly evident among students at private four-year institutions. The data underscores the shifting priorities of students and families seeking educational paths with practical, measurable outcomes. For instance, Computer Science programs alone have seen a 3.3% increase in bachelor’s enrollments, while doctoral programs in the field rose by 8.2%. This increase reflects strong student interest in fields associated with high employability rates and competitive starting salaries. Similarly, Healthcare programs report significant enrollment growth, with associate programs increasing by 9.6%, highlighting the perceived stability and essential nature of healthcare-related careers. Undergraduate business programs also saw a 4.1% increase, showcasing sustained interest in fields that blend theoretical knowledge with practical application. When factoring the data and trends over 2 years these trends are even more profound.
The shift toward career-focused education reflects a strong preference for programs with clear career paths and measurable outcomes. This trend puts pressure on traditional majors like the Humanities and Social Sciences to innovate and demonstrate their relevance to modern learners. Restructuring these programs to incorporate multidisciplinary elements could bridge the gap between traditional academic principles and the modern job market’s demands. Programs that blend Humanities with Data Analytics or Psychology with Health Sciences create versatile degrees, attracting students who seek applicable skills across multiple sectors.
Data from the Clearinghouse also shows a steady increase in enrollment in multidisciplinary programs, such as Environmental Studies, Data Science, and Public Policy, fields that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries and prepare students for roles requiring interdisciplinary knowledge (Kim, et. al., 2024, Figure 6.1). This growth underscores the appeal of degrees that allow students to gain a broader skill set applicable across diverse industries.
These interdisciplinary programs offer more than just a diverse academic experience—they provide essential flexibility for a dynamic job market where cross-functional expertise is highly valued. As today’s workforce increasingly demands adaptable skill sets, programs that combine high-growth fields with foundational disciplines are likely to resonate with modern learners and position them for success. Evolving traditional programs to incorporate in-demand skills, such as integrating Data Analysis within Social Sciences or Applied Psychology within Healthcare, would attract students and provide them with the critical adaptability required in an interconnected and rapidly changing workforce.
7. Emerging Institutional Models
The changing demographics and preferences of today’s students necessitate adaptive institutional models that cater to diverse educational needs. Community colleges, for instance, have seen a 4.6% increase in enrollment and an ever greater increase in enrollment by students with Pell Grants underscoring their appeal as cost-effective alternatives to traditional four-year institutions (Kim, et. al., Figure 3.1 and 3.4, 2024). Many of these colleges, those now known as primary associates bachelor awarding institutions (PAB), are expanding their offerings to include four-year degrees, which appeals to students looking for affordable paths to a bachelor’s degree without transferring to a more expensive institution (Kim, et., al., Figure 3.4). This trend not only reflects a shift toward accessible, cost-efficient education but also highlights community colleges’ expanding role as direct competitors to four-year institutions.
Another emerging model is the rise in fully online education programs, which grew by 6.3% in 2024 and 13.6% between Fall 2022 – 2024, aligning with students’ preference for flexibility and accessibility (Kim, et. al., Figure 3.5, 2024). This growth is especially pertinent for students balancing education with other responsibilities, including work and family obligations. Private institutions offering robust online programs are positioning themselves well to attract a growing market of non-traditional students who value the adaptability of online learning over traditional in-person programs.
As previously noted, the enrollment data from the NSC report shows a 10.5% increase in Freshmen aged 21 to 24, 20.0% increase in Freshmen aged 25 to 29 and 9.8% increase in Freshmen aged 30 or older, further underscoring the need for institutions to adjust their offerings to better meet the needs of adult learners. These students, often attending school part-time, prioritize programs that allow for upskilling or reskilling to remain competitive in rapidly changing job markets. For private institutions to differentiate themselves, they must leverage their unique missions by emphasizing aspects like small class sizes, personalized learning experiences, or niche program offerings tailored to this demographic. By focusing on targeted services such as online offerings, evening classes, weekend offerings, and enhanced career services, private colleges can position themselves as appealing choices for modern learners beyond the traditional 18-22 age group.
In contrast, enrollment among traditional-age students (18, 19-20) declined by 5.8% and 8.6%, respectively, at private four-year institutions. This decrease reflects the broader demographic shifts and highlights the need for these institutions to expand their appeal to a more varied student body (Kim, et. al., 2024). Additionally, the rise in short-term credential programs, such as certificates, increased by 7.3% this year at private institutions. This trend points to students’ growing interest in education that offers immediate, practical applications and job market relevance.
In a competitive landscape with over 5,900 postsecondary institutions in the U.S., of which about 1,324 are private four-year colleges (NCES, 2022), a clear value proposition is essential for institutional survival. Institutions should consider innovative program structures, such as stackable credentials, that support lifelong learning and offer students flexible pathways to complete degrees over time.
Final Thoughts - Signals for Strategic Planning
The preliminary Fall 2024 enrollment data offer critical insights and potential early indicators that could shape the future of higher education if current trends persist. With the final dataset expected in January, institutions have an opportunity to begin adapting their strategies now to address the changing landscape of higher education. Key findings, such as the 7.3% increase in certificate program enrollments and although there is overall growth in undergraduate enrollment, the declines in freshmen enrollment of students aged 18-21 are telling (Kim, et. al., 2024). These trends, if sustained, could reshape the structure and offerings of private institutions, particularly those aiming to remain competitive in a marketplace increasingly geared toward non-traditional and modern learners.
One notable takeaway is the decline in traditional freshman enrollment, which dropped by 5.8% in 18 year old students and 8.6% in 19 to 20 year old students at private four-year institutions, reflecting a broader demographic shift due to declining birth rates and compounded by challenges such as the delayed FAFSA rollout. If this trend becomes a long-term reality, it could lead to smaller incoming classes each year, impacting not only tuition revenue but also long-term alumni engagement and institutional stability. This demographic shift emphasizes the need for colleges to prioritize recruiting non-traditional students and to strengthen retention strategies by offering support systems and flexibility tailored to modern learners.
As certificate enrollments rise as well as the average age of the typical student, it will also be essential for institutions to rethink traditional degree pathways and consider integrating more stackable credentials into their offerings. The data reveal that career-focused fields, such as healthcare, business, and multidisciplinary studies have shown significant growth, while humanities and social sciences continue to decline. This suggests that students are increasingly seeking educational paths with a clear return on investment (ROI), and institutions that adapt by offering multidisciplinary programs and job-market-aligned curricula are likely to see stronger enrollment numbers.
Additionally, shifts in the racial and economic composition of the student body highlight potential challenges and opportunities for diversity and inclusion strategies. The Supreme Court’s ruling on affirmative action and the decrease in Pell Grant recipient numbers coupled with the increase in HSIs and HBCUs underscore a need for more proactive recruitment and retention efforts, especially among underrepresented and lower-income students. If these patterns hold, it could become essential for institutions to build partnerships with high schools, community organizations, and employers to maintain a diverse and inclusive campus.
While the January update will provide a fuller picture, these early data points should encourage institutions to start evaluating their strategic priorities now. By focusing on adaptive, mission-driven strategies and remaining responsive to these enrollment shifts, private institutions can better position themselves to meet the needs of an evolving student body and ensure relevance in a competitive landscape. Engaging in forward-looking planning that embraces flexibility, accessibility, and inclusivity will be crucial in navigating the uncertainties of the coming years, as the higher education sector adapts to the demands of the modern learner and the realities of an increasingly complex job market.
References
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